THE HONEYBALL BUZZ

The time has now arrived for David Cameron to come up with a new Conservative European policy.  Since Czech President Vaclav Klaus has ended all speculation and signed the Lisbon Treaty, the Tories no longer have even the slightest amount of wriggle room.  Cameron’s muddle through and hope for the best approach will no longer wash.  But what decisions will he take, or perhaps more to the point, what decisions will his Party allow him to take?

Many Tory MPs, most of the grassroots and right wing newspapers such as the Daily Telegraph want a hard line on Europe.  It never ceases to amaze me just how much time and energy the Tories are prepared to waste on the European Union.  I am utterly convinced that the Eurosceptics are fighting a lost cause; Britain has been in the EU for over 30 years and over half our exports go to EU countries.  We are in the EU and in Europe.  It would be madness to leave and expose Britain to an extremely uncertain and isolated future.  I believe the British people understand this and if push came to shove would make their views known.

However, Cameron no longer has the luxury of time on his side.  He needs to be credible from today right up to the General Election.  Will he follow his Party or go with the centre-right heads of government in the European Council?  The European leaders whom Cameron may once have viewed as his allies in Europe are almost to a man and woman fed up with the Tories leaving the EPP to set up their own Eurosceptic European Conservatives and Reformists Group.  There is little doubt that they will tell him that the EU works on the basis of compromise and that if the Tories seek to undo the Lisbon Treaty which has been the best part of 10 years in the making, and which grants Britain various opt-outs, British influence in Europe will suffer.

So heads (credibility with EU leaders) you lose with the grassroots and tails (popularity with Tory members) you lose with the heads of state.  If I were Mr Cameron (thankfully there’s no chance of that), this is a dilemma I would rather not have to face.  My strong hunch is that Cameron will go with his Party just as he did when he promised to take the Conservatives out of the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) in the European Parliament in order to get himself elected Tory Leader.  The Conservatives have, after all, already decided that, should they form a government, they will introduce a law stating that future change to EU treaties will require ratification by referendum.

Going with Party rather than seeking influence in Europe’s corridors of power would be utter lunacy.  Surely any intelligent and right thinking person can see that Britain needs influence in the EU.  The EU is both our present and our future.  While I, for one, would never argue that the EU as presently constituted is perfect, influence gives Britain the opportunity to make improvements and stand up for our national interests.  Since the Tories have in the past claimed they do not wish to completely withdraw from the European Union, where is the logic in any future policy which may give away British influence?