THE HONEYBALL BUZZ

Last Wednesday (4 February) Channel 4) and YouGov published a voting intentions poll which “concentrated only on where it really matters – the 60 seats that will determine whether David Cameron will lead the Conservative party to a victory with a majority of seats in the House of Commons” . Those are the seats which Labour’s majority over the Conservatives is between 6%-14% (based on new boundaries). The ‘real marginals’ as they could almost be called.

 The question I would ask: “do you feel special when you are told this?” Was your constituency one of the sixty seats that was polled (see list below)? If not, how does that make you feel?

Channel 4 and all the other commentators who make the same point need to balance their marginals focus with the voices and views of those in other seats, ie. the vast majority of people. And – even better – they should explain that it is the nature of our current voting system that forces them (and parties) to focus so much on just a few seats.

That list of constituencies is as follows: Amber Valley, Barrow and Furness, Batley and Spen, Bedford, Blackpool North and Cleveleys, Bolton North East, Bolton West, Bradford West, Brentford and Isleworth, Brigg and Goole, Carlisle, Chatham and Alyesford, Cleethorpes, Copeland, Dewsbury, Dover, Dudley North, Dudley South, Elmet and Rothwell, Eltham, Gedling, Gloucester, Great Yarmouth, Halesowen and Rowley Regis, Halifax, Hammersmith, Harrow East, Hendon, Hyndburn, Ipswich, Keighley, Kingswood, Lancaster and Fleetwood, Leicestershire North West, Lincoln, Morecambe and Lunesdale, Northampton North, Nuneaton, Plymouth Sutton and Devonport, Pudsey, Reading West, Rossendale and Darwen, Sefton Central, Stevenage, Stirling, Stockton South, Swindon North, Thurrock, Tooting, Tynemouth, Warrington South, Warwick and Leamington Spa, Waveney, Westminster North, Wirral South, Worcester.

If you don’t see your constituency featured there … your vote is not considered to matter as much! Well, that goes for most of you. If you are very lucky you may live in one of the 55 seats considered ultra-marginal which have already seen huge amounts of attention and resources poured in; even if the pollsters have already discounted your Labour MP from surviving. Or equally you could be in luck and be in one of the 25 seats that the Tories are targeting from the LibDems or other parties. That also goes for if you live in one of the 41 other seats that Labour or another party is hoping to pick up from the Tories. Look at this spreadsheet by ERS for the full list.

However, if you don’t happen to either be in luck or feeling special, then …. oh dear. You don’t matter, politically-speaking. Your vote is not nearly as important to parties or pollsters or the media.

I feel particularly strongly about this as I face election under a proportional system where every vote counts. When the European Parliament elections come up in June of this year, the marginality of seats will be of no interest whatsoever. Every single vote will count.

And the European elections do matter. Over half of our legislation in the country comes from Europe. At present the European Parliament is controlled by the Right. It matters very much that we have Labour MEPs elected to carry out Labour policy in Europe and stop the Tories continuing to promote their Little Englander views whenever they can.